June 19, 2013
Looking at some Merrimack-Pairwise notes
Posted on February 11, 2013 | in Analysis | by Mike McMahonNebraska-Omaha: Merrimack is just 0.0009 percentage points in RPI from flipping the comparison with Omaha, which sits directly in front of Merrimack in the PWR. At the moment there’s only one common opponent — Army — and each team has a win. But, the Mavericks travel to Anchorage next weekend for a pair of games. The Warriors could use for a struggling Anchorage team (they’re just 4-17-7 on the season) to pull off a couple of upsets. There’s still so much time left that Anchorage having success isn’t critical, but, it would help the Warriors’ cause. Just a small detail.
UMass Lowell: An interesting thing happened on Sunday, but won’t hold much weight moving forward. By beating UMass, Merrimack actually lost the comparison with Lowell, by virtue of UML dropping below the 10-team minimum for the TUC criterion, which MC wins (by beating UMass, MC dropped the Minutemen off the TUC cliff). The reason it doesn’t matter is because by the end of the season, Lowell will be over that minimum, but it was an interesting quirk that occurred on Sunday.
There have been cases in the past where teams have been better off losing late in the year from an NCAA perspective, which just illustrates that the PWR system is flawed. Back in 2005, Wisconsin beat Anchorage in Game 3 of their WCHA playoff series. By doing so, they dropped Anchorage off the TUC cliff and Wisconsin dropped dramatically in the PWR because of it. From an NCAA perspective, Wisconsin would have been better off losing that Game 3 to Anchorage.
Every game counts: Not to rub salt in the wound, but if you’re Merrimack, you have to look back at two games in particular this season being lost opportunities, given how the season as taken shape. Losses to both UConn and Anchorage, a pair of teams which have struggled, significantly hurt Merrimack in the PWR. If you change both of those games to wins, the Warriors jump to No. 15 in the PWR, meaning that as of right now, the Warriors would be an NCAA tournament team.
What it goes to show is that, in such a short season — remember, college hockey is only 34 games — every game counts. A few years back, when the Warriors were never in the national conversation, non-conference games were glorified exhibitions. Not anymore. If you’re a team that’s in the national conversation on a yearly basis, your non-conference record becomes critical. What’s most important is to win those games. Especially in Hockey East, you’re conference schedule is always going to be beefy enough that it will keep you in that national conversation if you take care of business in league. Even under the new schedule, HEA teams are still guaranteed eight games against BC, BU,UNH and now Notre Dame, which will be in that conversation almost yearly. Not to mention teams like Merrimack, Providence, Vermont, Northeastern, Lowell and others jumping in and out of that TUC bubble yearly.
Home ice vs. TUC: At 5-7-1, the Warriors have the best record against TUC out of teams currently battling for that final home-ice spot in Hockey East. Lowell is 3-6 now that UMass is no longer a TUC and Providence is 2-8-4. Merrimack has the fourth most wins vs. TUC in Hockey East behind UNH (11), Boston University (9) and Boston College (8).
What’s best?: It’s still too early to know for sure what will help more in the long run, especially with separate PWR and league implications in HEA games, but generally speaking, if you’re Merrimack, you want teams you’ve had success against to beat teams you’ve struggled against. Monday, for example, Harvard beating Boston University in the Beanpot consolation is better than the Terriers picking up a win. Same goes for Northeastern beating Boston College (Merrimack is 2-1 vs. NU and 0-1 vs. BC). A good general rule, especially with non-conference opponents, is you want your opponents to do well when they’re not playing you.
Simply put: I get asked a lot from Merrimack fans what they need to “root for” in other games around the country. But, to keep it simple, all you need to “root for” is your team. You want your team to win. Like I said a little earlier, it’s still too early to really determine what you want other teams to do, especially considering MC still has multiple games left with BC and Lowell as well as games with BU and Providence still on the docket. What helps you now could hurt you later, depending on your own results. Winning your own games takes care of the “what ifs” with other teams. Nothing helps you more from a HEA and PWR perspective than winning your own games.
Awesome summary. Of course, I’d rather just see MC win the HEA tourney and remove all doubt. Why not, right? It starts Friday by getting the BC monkey off our backs!
It’s going to be a great game Friday – but — if Merrimack is to get in, they either will do it via the Hockey East courtesy bid (win the tourney) or go pretty far the rest of the way. But as I said – Merrimack absolutely, positively MUST beat the weak non-conference teams — otherwise, Mike, you’re going to be spending the last weekend of the season writing up all these 245-faceted scenarios (“we can still get in, if UNH loses, if Northeastern wins, Coast Guard ties, Clarkson and U-Mass Lowell lose the first game of their tournaments, BU loses their last three, and Notre Dame has their last game cancelled.”)
I don’t ever remember using “we” when referencing them … I cover Merrimack, and the majority of the readers here are Merrimack fans. So yeah, they’re usually concerned with what their team needs.
If it bothers you that much, don’t read.
Quick note — would have been better for MC if BU had won the Beanpot consolation instead of Harvard, because MC has played BU 2x (and will play at least once more) but only played Harvard once. A BU win would have improved their record and thus improved the record of MC’s opponents meaning a better strength of schedule — and it would count 2x and eventually 3x, as if three different teams you played all won today and improved their record. MC holds at 20th in the Pairwise either way but their RPI would have been higher if BU had won, not enough to move MC up right now but it could have been down the line to flip a comparison or two.
At any rate — like last season it comes down to, win games and you’ll get in, don’t win games and you won’t. If they continue to play well and finish strong, everything else will take care of itself.
“At any rate — like last season it comes down to, win games and you’ll get in, don’t win games and you won’t. If they continue to play well and finish strong, everything else will take care of itself.”
Absolutely. And if you DON’T win – you don’t belong in the tournament, anyway.
As crazy as it may sound that Hockey East trophy would mean more to me. Go Warriors! Thom Lawler has a smile tonight, for sure!