May 25, 2013
If I were the committee … which I’m not … and the season ended today … which it doesn’t (Week 4)
Posted on February 18, 2013 | in Analysis | by Mike McMahonWeekly Disclaimer:
I don’t like looking ahead and projecting fictional NCAA tournament brackets until after the conference championships are decided in March.
Before then, it doesn’t mean anything. With so many games left in the regular season and then the playoffs, projecting anything with a snapshot as if the season ended today doesn’t accurately “predict” anything. It gives us an idea of what things would look like if the season ended today, but for most teams, there are a month’s worth of regular season games remaining along with as many as five playoff games.
With that being said, I understand a lot of people are interested in weekly snapshots of what the tournament “could” look like, and following the changes week-to-week. So, I’ll try my best to include what I believe the NCAA tournament would look like on a weekly basis “if the season were to end today,” which of course, it doesn’t.
But, to save some time, I’m not going to breakdown the entire process. I’m going to list my bracket below, and if anyone has any specific questions on the process I took to get there, feel free to leave something in the comment section and I’ll be happy to explain. For now, enjoy!
*Note: Merrimack receives an auto-bid as HEA leader and outside of top-16 in the PWR.
PROVIDENCE (Brown hosts)
1. Quinnipiac vs. 16. Merrimack
8. Western Michigan vs. 9. St. Cloud State
GRAND RAPIDS (Michigan hosts)
2. Minnesota vs. 13. Boston University
7. Minnesota State vs. 11. Denver
TOLEDO (Bowling Green hosts)
3. Miami vs. 14. UMass Lowell
6. North Dakota vs. 10. Niagara
MANCHESTER (UNH hosts)
4. New Hampshire vs. 15. Notre Dame
5. Boston College vs. 12. Yale
One thing wrong with your bracket.
The NCAA only awards one courtesy bid per conference.
Hockey East has chosen to award its courtesy bid to its conference tournament champion.
With the losses they incurred to non-contenders early in the season, Merrimack could theoretically win the Hockey East RS title, but if they don’t get to the TD Garden – they could have the distinction of winning the regular season title and watching the NCAA regionals on TV.
They have to keep winning. Even a #15 or #16 in the pairwise might not be enough, if a bad team wins its conference tournament and knocks Merrimack down a rung (and out).
If that happens, I’ll probably read a column from you “the system is broken” but what it comes down to is that they just have to keep winning.
There’s nothing wrong with this bracket. Do yourself a favor and read the whole thing first …
Merrimack is included here because they are leading the league, so for the purpose of this bracket, we use them as the theoretical HEA tournament winner. That’s how we’ve dealt with the AHA for years, only this year, Niagara is actually in the top-16.
If MC wins the RS title, they’ll have enough wins to the point where it will likely have them in the 10 range. A win vs. PC yesterday would have brought them to 13th. In order to win the RS title, they will need to beat teams like BC and BU down the stretch.
While your theoretical scenario is possible, it’s not probable, because winning the necessary games down the stretch to remain in first, they will climb in the PWR.
The system isn’t broken — though I do believe the KRACH is a better system than the PWR — it simply is what it is.
For some reason, you can’t seem to understand that my readership here is probably 90% Merrimack fans. That’s who I cover. So, yes, come tournament time, if there are scenarios in play where Merrimack can get in, and I think my readers would want to know that, I’ll write it.
It’s not rocket science …
I *DID* read the whole article. And the headline reads – “…and the season ended today”… and based on that, Merrimack would be HE RS champ and not at the dance.
Now – I agree with you – four wins over the last six to play, and advancing to the TD Garden by winning two of two (or three) at home in the quarters, will likely bolster them up enough — and barring courtesy bid / tournament wins by three or four crummy teams in other conferences, they’ll be in the top 16.
We’ve always awarded autobids to conference leaders when doing fictional brackets. USCHO did the same thing this week. That’s how it’s done. The tournament hasn’t happened yet.