The Mack Report

A scenario for Merrimack where Western Michigan wins the CCHA consolation

There is at least one scenario where Merrimack would qualify for the NCAA tournament with Western Michigan losing in the CCHA semifinal and winning the CCHA consolation, believe it or not. It would require Bowling Green to advance the CCHA Championship and lose to Miami, which would flip Merrimack’s comparison with Michigan State and drop the Spartans out of the NCAA tournament and put the Warriors in at No. 15 and the last at-large bid.

It would actually put the Warriors in a tie for 14th, but they’d lose the tiebreaker with Northern Michigan by 0.0004 RPI points.

It involves the conference champions behind Maine (Hockey East, with a win over BC in the final), North Dakota (WCHA), Miami (CCHA), Union (ECAC) and RIT (Atlantic Hockey). Not all of these results must happen but there are some keys, I believe.

Be sure to check back late Friday night. After conference semifinals, we’ll have a much clearer picture regarding whether or not the Warriors have a shot at the NCAA tournament.

To help make things a bit easier, here are two things I believe MUST happen on Friday in order for the Warriors to qualify, along with one that helps greatly, but isn’t necessarily a must:

  1. Maine must beat Boston University in the Hockey East semifinals
  2. Cornell must lose in the ECAC semifinals
  3. Western Michigan must lose in the CCHA semifinals (not a definite, there is at least one scenario where Western Michigan wins the CCHA semifinal and loses to Michigan in the finals and Merrimack still qualifies, as long as BGSU were to win the consolation against Miami, it seems).

Here is the scenario referenced above with Western Michigan winning the CCHA consolation:

  • WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
  • WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
  • WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
  • WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
  • WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
  • Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
  • Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
  • Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston College.
  • ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
  • ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
  • ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Harvard.
  • ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
  • CCHA Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
  • CCHA Semifinal #1: Bowling Green defeats Michigan.
  • CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Bowling Green.
  • CCHA Consolation game: Western Michigan defeats Michigan.
  • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara.
  • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
  • Atlantic Hockey Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force.

That would make the final Pairwise look like this (Merrimack would draw Miami in the first round in either St. Paul or more likely, Green Bay):

1t Boston College (BC) 29 .5717 Mm Un Mi ND Me FS Mn BU ML DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
1t [AQ] Miami (Mm) 29 .5555* Un Mi ND MD Me FS Mn BU ML DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
3 [AQ] Union (Un) 28 .5554* Mi ND MD Me FS Mn BU ML DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
4 Michigan (Mi) 27 .5538 ND MD Me FS Mn BU ML DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
5t [AQ] North Dakota (ND) 26 .5548 MD Me FS Mn BU ML DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
5t Minnesota-Duluth (MD) 26 .5516* BC Me FS Mn BU ML DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
7 [AQ] Maine (Me) 24 .5528* FS Mn BU ML DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
8 Ferris State (FS) 23 .5496 Mn BU ML DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
9t Minnesota (Mn) 21 .5485* BU DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
9t Boston University (BU) 21 .5462 ML DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
9t Mass.-Lowell (ML) 21 .5428 Mn DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
12 Denver (DU) 19 .5413* WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
13 Western Michigan (WM) 17 .5356 NM Mr MS Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
14t Northern Michigan (NM) 16 .5310 Mr Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
14t Merrimack (Mr) 16 .5306 MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
16t Michigan State (MS) 15 .5351 NM Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
16t Cornell (Cr) 15 .5296 WM Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn A

The one scenario that has Western Michigan winning its CCHA semifinal looks like this:

  • WCHA Play-in #2: Denver defeats Michigan Tech.
  • WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
  • WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Denver.
  • WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
  • WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
  • Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston University.
  • Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Providence.
  • Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston College.
  • ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Cornell.
  • ECAC Semifinal #1: Union defeats Colgate.
  • ECAC Championship game: Union defeats Harvard.
  • ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
  • CCHA Semifinal #2: Western Michigan defeats Miami.
  • CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Bowling Green.
  • CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Western Michigan.
  • CCHA Consolation game: Bowling Green defeats Miami.
  • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Niagara.
  • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Mercyhurst.
  • Atlantic Hockey Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force.
1t Boston College (BC) 29 .5720 Mi Un ND Me FS Mn ML Mm BU DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
1t [AQ] Michigan (Mi) 29 .5664 Un ND MD Me FS Mn ML Mm BU DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
3 [AQ] Union (Un) 28 .5556* ND MD Me FS Mn ML Mm BU DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
4t [AQ] North Dakota (ND) 27 .5546 MD Me FS Mn ML Mm BU DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
4t Minnesota-Duluth (MD) 27 .5515* BC Me FS Mn ML Mm BU DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
6t [AQ] Maine (Me) 24 .5529* FS Mn ML BU DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
6t Ferris State (FS) 24 .5496 Mn ML Mm BU DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
8t Minnesota (Mn) 22 .5485* Mm BU DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
8t Mass.-Lowell (ML) 22 .5428 Mn Mm DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
8t Miami (Mm) 22 .5426 Me BU DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
11 Boston University (BU) 21 .5463 ML DU WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
12 Denver (DU) 19 .5409* WM NM Mr MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
13 Western Michigan (WM) 17 .5356 NM Mr MS Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
14t Northern Michigan (NM) 16 .5311 Mr Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
14t Merrimack (Mr) 16 .5306 MS Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
16t Michigan State (MS) 15 .5354 NM Cr Nt Ha CC OS LS SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
16t Cornell (Cr) 15 .5296 WM Nt Ha CC OS LS RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
18 Notre Dame (Nt) 12 .5243 Ha CC OS LS SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
19t Harvard (Ha) 10 .5158 OS LS RT SC Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
19t Colorado College (CC) 10 .5139 Ha RT SC Wi Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
21t Ohio State (OS) 9 .5175 CC LS SC Wi Qn AF NE BS Ni
21t Lake Superior (LS) 9 .5148 CC RT SC Cg Qn AF NE BS Ni
21t [AQ] RIT (RT) 9 .5083 MS Nt OS Cg Qn AF